The Research Lab.

Ykicis launched with Robinhood Chain mainnet on July 1, 2026, on a simple observation: prediction markets had become real, with $44.8B in combined monthly volume by June 2026, up from under $5B nine months earlier. The research layer above them had not. Free probability feeds publish numbers with no entry, no exit, and no accountability. Institutional signal products distribute through terminals retail will never see.

The desk sits in between: systematic pricing across every tracked market, published selectively as Signals, with the whole record committed on-chain where anyone can audit it. Access is not a subscription. It is a token balance on Robinhood Chain, checked against a self-custodied wallet.

Every resolved forecast is scored: Brier score for calibration, paper return for the Signal rules. The Lab runs three standing programs: call accuracy (which evidence classes and expert cohorts improved the desk's calls), Signal outcomes (entry timing, catalyst classes, exit-window rules), and forecasting beyond markets (the same discipline pointed at geopolitical, policy, and business questions no venue lists yet).

The public benchmark record frames the bar: superforecasters average a Brier of 0.093 on ForecastBench against 0.111 for the best standalone model, and agentic systems with calibration have reached statistical parity on market questions. The Lab's job is to keep the desk on the right side of that line as it moves.

The Lab scores public expert commentary against outcomes, then weights the desk's judgment layer accordingly. The first published index, the Fed Rate-Path Expert Index, scored 380 predictions from 94 experts. The finding was consistent with the literature: titles predicted little, track records predicted a lot. Read the report.

Ykicis is a publisher. No trading venue, no custody, no managed accounts, no performance promises. The one thing it asks you to trust, that the record is what it says it is, is the one thing it engineered not to require trust at all.