Every signal. Every outcome.
The complete closed record, measured from published reference price to the day-7 mark (or the resolution price when the market settled sooner). Every row was hash-committed on Robinhood Chain at publication, so the archive cannot be backfilled. Open positions live on the member desk.
Average paper return per Signal
+12.4%
Win rate (closed only)
62%
Published Signals
253
40 open · 213 closed
August 2026
#ContractSideEntryExitReturnClosed
0217Unemployment above 4.2% at the next print?YES38¢27¢−29%2026-08-16 · Hold 7 days
0216A GPT-5.6-class model released by August 15?NO19¢27¢+42%2026-08-16 · Hold 7 days
0215Brent trades below $75 by December 31?YES53¢36¢−32%2026-08-16 · Hold 7 days
0213WTI crude settles above $80 by October 15?NO70¢83¢+19%2026-08-16 · Hold 7 days
0209S&P 500 closes above 6,800 by November 1?YES9¢2¢−78%2026-08-14 · Hold 7 days
0208HOOD stock token closes above $140 by August 1?YES40¢54¢+35%2026-08-15 · Hold 7 days
0207Taiwan Strait shipping disruption before September 15?YES31¢14¢−55%2026-08-15 · Hold 7 days
0206EU adopts the 19th sanctions package by July 15?YES79¢68¢−14%2026-08-16 · Hold 7 days
0205Brent trades below $75 by July 15?YES47¢57¢+21%2026-08-15 · Hold 7 days
0204ETH trades above $5,500 by December 31?NO55¢49¢−11%2026-08-14 · Hold 7 days
0203ChatGPT is the App Store's top free app on December 31?NO75¢65¢−13%2026-08-15 · Hold 7 days
0202Stablecoin supply crosses $320B by September 1?NO56¢49¢−13%2026-08-15 · Hold 7 days
0201U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 1?NO14¢8¢−43%2026-08-14 · Hold 7 days
0200US-Iran framework agreement signed by October 15?YES27¢37¢+37%2026-08-15 · Hold 7 days
0199EU adopts the 20th sanctions package by November 1?NO48¢57¢+19%2026-08-13 · Hold 7 days
0198Brent trades below $70 by July 15?NO35¢46¢+31%2026-08-13 · Hold 7 days
0197US recession declared in 2026?NO53¢36¢−32%2026-08-13 · Hold 7 days
0196A GPT-5.6-class model released by July 31?NO63¢48¢−24%2026-08-13 · Hold 7 days
0195OPEC+ announces an output hike at the October meeting?YES9¢22¢+144%2026-08-14 · Hold 7 days
0194A named storm forms in the Atlantic before August 1?YES63¢80¢+27%2026-08-12 · Hold 7 days
0193US recession declared in 2026?NO58¢67¢+16%2026-08-12 · Hold 7 days
0192OPEC+ announces an output hike at the September meeting?NO35¢24¢−31%2026-08-12 · Hold 7 days
0191GPT-6 released by November 1?YES47¢60¢+28%2026-08-13 · Hold 7 days
0190AAPL stock token closes above $280 by September 15?YES81¢75¢−7%2026-08-12 · Hold 7 days
0189A named storm forms in the Atlantic before August 8?NO14¢21¢+50%2026-08-12 · Hold 7 days
0188GPT-6 released by August 1?YES64¢74¢+16%2026-08-11 · Hold 7 days
0187A named storm forms in the Atlantic before September 15?NO65¢54¢−17%2026-08-11 · Hold 7 days
0186Brent trades below $75 by October 15?NO38¢53¢+39%2026-08-10 · Hold 7 days
0185Ukraine ceasefire in effect by November 1?NO54¢46¢−15%2026-08-12 · Hold 7 days
0184A Category 3 hurricane makes US landfall by September 30?YES55¢45¢−18%2026-08-12 · Hold 7 days
0183Fed cuts rates at the September meeting?NO86¢73¢−15%2026-08-10 · Hold 7 days
0182A named storm forms in the Atlantic before July 31?NO35¢7¢−80%2026-08-10 · Hold 7 days
0181A Category 3 hurricane makes US landfall by August 31?NO49¢38¢−22%2026-08-12 · Hold 7 days
0180A Category 4 hurricane makes US landfall by November 1?NO20¢100¢+400%2026-08-08 · resolved early
0179An L2 flips Arbitrum in TVL by October 1?NO39¢49¢+26%2026-08-10 · Hold 7 days
0178Ukraine ceasefire in effect by December 31?YES39¢53¢+36%2026-08-11 · Hold 7 days
0177EU adopts the 19th sanctions package by October 1?NO46¢59¢+28%2026-08-11 · Hold 7 days
0176AAPL stock token closes above $280 by year-end?NO79¢84¢+6%2026-08-10 · Hold 7 days
0175MSTR stock token closes above $500 by September 15?NO36¢25¢−31%2026-08-11 · Hold 7 days
0174US natural gas above $3.50 by October 15?YES57¢48¢−16%2026-08-10 · Hold 7 days
0173An open-weights model tops LMArena by July 15?YES62¢46¢−26%2026-08-08 · Hold 7 days
0172Brent trades below $70 by October 1?NO65¢47¢−28%2026-08-09 · Hold 7 days
0171US recession declared in 2026?NO23¢27¢+17%2026-08-09 · Hold 7 days
0170A spot SOL ETF approved by July 15?NO12¢2¢−83%2026-08-08 · Hold 7 days
0169Stablecoin supply crosses $350B by August 15?YES26¢47¢+81%2026-08-08 · Hold 7 days
0166US CPI prints below 3.0% for the next release?YES62¢43¢−31%2026-08-08 · Hold 7 days
0165An open-weights model tops LMArena by August 31?NO28¢12¢−57%2026-08-08 · Hold 7 days
0162Fed cuts rates at the September meeting?NO88¢96¢+9%2026-08-08 · Hold 7 days
July 2026
#ContractSideEntryExitReturnClosed
0168U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by August 15?NO46¢54¢+17%2026-08-07 · Hold 7 days
0167A spot SOL ETF approved by October 1?YES51¢57¢+12%2026-08-07 · Hold 7 days
0164OPEC+ announces an output hike at the September meeting?YES10¢18¢+80%2026-08-06 · Hold 7 days
0163A GPT-5.6-class model released by August 15?NO75¢86¢+15%2026-08-07 · Hold 7 days
0161WTI crude settles above $75 by August 1?NO78¢73¢−6%2026-08-06 · Hold 7 days
0160ETH trades above $6,500 by December 31?NO31¢41¢+32%2026-08-07 · Hold 7 days
0159U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by August 8?NO19¢2¢−89%2026-08-07 · Hold 7 days
0158A GPT-5.6-class model released by August 8?YES75¢80¢+7%2026-08-05 · Hold 7 days
0157A GPT-5.6-class model released by July 31?YES46¢37¢−20%2026-08-06 · Hold 7 days
0156An L2 flips Arbitrum in TVL by July 15?YES85¢99¢+16%2026-08-06 · Hold 7 days
0155US natural gas above $4.00 by August 15?NO16¢30¢+88%2026-08-06 · Hold 7 days
0154MSTR stock token closes above $500 by August 8?NO13¢20¢+54%2026-08-05 · Hold 7 days
0153HOOD stock token closes above $140 by October 15?YES54¢63¢+17%2026-08-06 · Hold 7 days
0152OPEC+ announces an output hike at the September meeting?NO74¢57¢−23%2026-08-05 · Hold 7 days
0151Unemployment above 4.2% at the next print?NO16¢2¢−88%2026-08-05 · Hold 7 days
0150Stablecoin supply crosses $320B by August 15?NO57¢39¢−32%2026-08-06 · Hold 7 days
0149A Category 3 hurricane makes US landfall by September 1?NO41¢35¢−15%2026-08-04 · Hold 7 days
0148US natural gas above $4.00 by August 31?YES32¢38¢+19%2026-08-05 · Hold 7 days
0147A GPT-5.6-class model released by July 31?NO49¢65¢+33%2026-08-06 · Hold 7 days
0146Brent trades below $75 by July 15?YES52¢62¢+19%2026-08-04 · Hold 7 days
0145HOOD stock token closes above $120 by August 15?NO36¢56¢+56%2026-08-04 · Hold 7 days
0144GPT-6 released by September 1?YES81¢86¢+6%2026-08-03 · Hold 7 days
0143EU adopts the 19th sanctions package by year-end?NO48¢52¢+8%2026-08-05 · Hold 7 days
0142US CPI prints below 2.8% for the next release?NO29¢3¢−90%2026-08-04 · Hold 7 days
0141US CPI prints below 2.5% for the next release?NO27¢100¢+270%2026-07-29 · resolved early
0140A spot SOL ETF approved by October 1?NO55¢43¢−22%2026-08-02 · Hold 7 days
0139S&P 500 closes above 6,800 by August 31?YES57¢45¢−21%2026-08-03 · Hold 7 days
0138US natural gas above $3.50 by September 15?YES19¢24¢+26%2026-08-02 · Hold 7 days
0137Stablecoin supply crosses $320B by July 15?NO20¢28¢+40%2026-08-03 · Hold 7 days
0136MSTR stock token closes above $500 by December 31?NO57¢100¢+75%2026-08-02 · Hold 7 days
0135BTC trades above $165K by December 31?NO21¢16¢−24%2026-08-01 · Hold 7 days
0134S&P 500 closes above 7,000 by July 31?YES77¢66¢−14%2026-08-02 · Hold 7 days
0133US CPI prints below 2.5% for the next release?YES55¢44¢−20%2026-08-02 · Hold 7 days
0132An L2 flips Arbitrum in TVL by July 31?YES85¢99¢+16%2026-07-31 · Hold 7 days
0131EU adopts the 20th sanctions package by September 15?NO88¢91¢+3%2026-08-02 · Hold 7 days
0130MSTR stock token closes above $500 by December 31?YES14¢20¢+43%2026-08-03 · Hold 7 days
0129US recession declared in 2026?YES61¢79¢+30%2026-08-01 · Hold 7 days
0128BTC trades above $165K by July 15?YES78¢64¢−18%2026-08-01 · Hold 7 days
0127US recession declared in 2026?YES45¢54¢+20%2026-08-02 · Hold 7 days
0126Stablecoin supply crosses $320B by September 1?NO41¢57¢+39%2026-07-31 · Hold 7 days
0125TSLA stock token closes above $340 by July 15?YES68¢56¢−18%2026-08-01 · Hold 7 days
0124An open-weights model tops LMArena by December 31?YES80¢88¢+10%2026-08-01 · Hold 7 days
0123US natural gas above $3.50 by August 8?NO84¢100¢+19%2026-07-27 · resolved early
0122HOOD stock token closes above $140 by August 8?NO15¢19¢+27%2026-07-30 · Hold 7 days
0121NYC records a 100°F day by August 8?YES30¢23¢−23%2026-08-01 · Hold 7 days
0120NVDA stock token closes above $195 by November 1?YES9¢16¢+78%2026-07-31 · Hold 7 days
0119GPT-6 released by November 1?NO26¢40¢+54%2026-07-31 · Hold 7 days
0118OPEC+ announces an output hike at the September meeting?YES64¢70¢+9%2026-07-30 · Hold 7 days
0117US CPI prints below 2.5% for the next release?NO58¢51¢−12%2026-07-29 · Hold 7 days
0116Unemployment above 4.2% at the next print?YES84¢77¢−8%2026-07-30 · Hold 7 days
0115Fed cuts rates at the September meeting?NO36¢43¢+19%2026-07-30 · Hold 7 days
0114GPT-6 released by October 15?NO37¢52¢+41%2026-07-28 · Hold 7 days
0113Ukraine ceasefire in effect by November 1?NO10¢13¢+30%2026-07-30 · Hold 7 days
0112BTC trades above $150K by October 15?YES31¢38¢+23%2026-07-28 · Hold 7 days
0111An L2 flips Arbitrum in TVL by August 1?NO63¢73¢+16%2026-07-30 · Hold 7 days
0110U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by year-end?NO15¢28¢+87%2026-07-29 · Hold 7 days
0109US recession declared in 2026?NO64¢79¢+23%2026-07-30 · Hold 7 days
0108NYC records a 100°F day by September 15?YES29¢100¢+245%2026-07-24 · resolved early
0107TSLA stock token closes above $380 by October 15?YES26¢16¢−38%2026-07-29 · Hold 7 days
0106US CPI prints below 3.0% for the next release?YES34¢39¢+15%2026-07-28 · Hold 7 days
0105Fed cuts rates at the October meeting?NO41¢50¢+22%2026-07-29 · Hold 7 days
0104A spot SOL ETF approved by September 30?NO83¢95¢+14%2026-07-27 · Hold 7 days
0103OPEC+ announces an output hike at the October meeting?YES80¢68¢−15%2026-07-27 · Hold 7 days
0102WTI crude settles above $75 by July 15?NO19¢10¢−47%2026-07-27 · Hold 7 days
0101Taiwan Strait shipping disruption before December 31?NO28¢100¢+257%2026-07-24 · resolved early
0100OPEC+ announces an output hike at the September meeting?NO31¢40¢+29%2026-07-28 · Hold 7 days
0099AAPL stock token closes above $260 by July 31?NO12¢26¢+117%2026-07-26 · Hold 7 days
0098Ukraine ceasefire in effect by July 15?YES60¢64¢+7%2026-07-28 · Hold 7 days
0097TSLA stock token closes above $380 by August 8?YES71¢86¢+21%2026-07-25 · Hold 7 days
0096A GPT-5.6-class model released by August 15?NO32¢38¢+19%2026-07-25 · Hold 7 days
0095Phoenix runs 15+ straight days above 110°F by October 15?YES57¢73¢+28%2026-07-27 · Hold 7 days
0094AAPL stock token closes above $280 by August 31?NO74¢66¢−11%2026-07-26 · Hold 7 days
0093MSTR stock token closes above $420 by August 15?YES21¢29¢+38%2026-07-27 · Hold 7 days
0092S&P 500 closes above 7,200 by December 31?NO85¢72¢−15%2026-07-26 · Hold 7 days
0091A named storm forms in the Atlantic before year-end?YES71¢94¢+32%2026-07-27 · Hold 7 days
0090HOOD stock token closes above $140 by October 1?NO56¢63¢+13%2026-07-26 · Hold 7 days
0089NVDA stock token closes above $210 by August 1?YES37¢49¢+32%2026-07-24 · Hold 7 days
0088A named storm forms in the Atlantic before July 15?NO25¢6¢−76%2026-07-26 · Hold 7 days
0087Anthropic ships a new frontier Claude model by September 15?NO55¢43¢−22%2026-07-24 · Hold 7 days
0086EU adopts the 20th sanctions package by September 30?YES54¢33¢−39%2026-07-24 · Hold 7 days
0085ETH trades above $5,500 by August 15?NO22¢31¢+41%2026-07-24 · Hold 7 days
0084OPEC+ announces an output hike at the October meeting?YES85¢59¢−31%2026-07-24 · Hold 7 days
0083ETH trades above $6,000 by December 31?YES69¢52¢−25%2026-07-24 · Hold 7 days
0082EU adopts the 20th sanctions package by October 15?YES11¢14¢+27%2026-07-23 · Hold 7 days
0081NVDA stock token closes above $210 by December 31?YES62¢49¢−21%2026-07-24 · Hold 7 days
0080EU adopts the 20th sanctions package by November 1?NO20¢28¢+40%2026-07-22 · Hold 7 days
0079NVDA stock token closes above $195 by year-end?NO45¢33¢−27%2026-07-25 · Hold 7 days
0078Phoenix runs 10+ straight days above 110°F by July 15?NO21¢27¢+29%2026-07-24 · Hold 7 days
0077EU adopts the 20th sanctions package by August 1?NO78¢70¢−10%2026-07-22 · Hold 7 days
0076OPEC+ announces an output hike at the September meeting?NO57¢41¢−28%2026-07-22 · Hold 7 days
0075ChatGPT is the App Store's top free app on year-end?NO82¢73¢−11%2026-07-21 · Hold 7 days
0074TSLA stock token closes above $380 by July 15?YES81¢92¢+14%2026-07-21 · Hold 7 days
0073WTI crude settles above $80 by July 15?NO10¢2¢−80%2026-07-21 · Hold 7 days
0072Brent trades below $75 by November 1?NO59¢69¢+17%2026-07-23 · Hold 7 days
0071A $10B AI training run announced by year-end?NO44¢33¢−25%2026-07-21 · Hold 7 days
0070An open-weights model tops LMArena by August 1?NO49¢61¢+24%2026-07-21 · Hold 7 days
0069Unemployment above 4.5% at the next print?YES45¢56¢+24%2026-07-20 · Hold 7 days
0068EU adopts the 20th sanctions package by August 8?NO10¢21¢+110%2026-07-20 · Hold 7 days
0067An L2 flips Arbitrum in TVL by September 1?NO82¢86¢+5%2026-07-22 · Hold 7 days
0066NVDA stock token closes above $210 by August 31?NO40¢44¢+10%2026-07-20 · Hold 7 days
0065Phoenix runs 10+ straight days above 110°F by September 1?NO23¢6¢−74%2026-07-19 · Hold 7 days
0064TSLA stock token closes above $340 by July 31?NO84¢94¢+12%2026-07-19 · Hold 7 days
0063U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by November 1?NO24¢32¢+33%2026-07-19 · Hold 7 days
0062ETH trades above $5,500 by October 15?YES33¢41¢+24%2026-07-21 · Hold 7 days
0061ETH trades above $6,500 by August 1?NO49¢41¢−16%2026-07-20 · Hold 7 days
0060Ukraine ceasefire in effect by July 15?NO23¢30¢+30%2026-07-19 · Hold 7 days
0059MSTR stock token closes above $420 by November 1?YES38¢47¢+24%2026-07-19 · Hold 7 days
0058S&P 500 closes above 7,000 by September 30?YES61¢72¢+18%2026-07-20 · Hold 7 days
0057A $25B AI training run announced by September 15?NO53¢58¢+9%2026-07-19 · Hold 7 days
0056Anthropic ships a new frontier Claude model by year-end?NO75¢81¢+8%2026-07-18 · Hold 7 days
0055Fed cuts rates at the October meeting?YES37¢49¢+32%2026-07-19 · Hold 7 days
0054US natural gas above $4.00 by December 31?YES85¢100¢+18%2026-07-19 · resolved early
0053US recession declared in 2026?YES9¢20¢+122%2026-07-17 · Hold 7 days
0052AAPL stock token closes above $260 by August 8?YES71¢88¢+24%2026-07-20 · Hold 7 days
0051ChatGPT is the App Store's top free app on year-end?NO50¢56¢+12%2026-07-18 · Hold 7 days
0050US natural gas above $3.50 by October 15?NO29¢38¢+31%2026-07-17 · Hold 7 days
0049EU adopts the 19th sanctions package by July 15?YES53¢36¢−32%2026-07-17 · Hold 7 days
0048HOOD stock token closes above $140 by August 8?NO44¢60¢+36%2026-07-16 · Hold 7 days
0047Brent trades below $70 by September 1?NO45¢36¢−20%2026-07-18 · Hold 7 days
0046ETH trades above $5,500 by December 31?NO56¢49¢−13%2026-07-17 · Hold 7 days
0045Unemployment above 4.5% at the next print?NO28¢46¢+64%2026-07-18 · Hold 7 days
0044ChatGPT is the App Store's top free app on August 31?YES86¢63¢−27%2026-07-17 · Hold 7 days
0043HOOD stock token closes above $140 by August 31?YES8¢2¢−75%2026-07-18 · Hold 7 days
0042NVDA stock token closes above $195 by August 15?NO40¢46¢+15%2026-07-18 · Hold 7 days
0041A spot SOL ETF approved by July 31?YES22¢29¢+32%2026-07-16 · Hold 7 days
0040U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by November 1?NO37¢50¢+35%2026-07-18 · Hold 7 days
0039US-Iran framework agreement signed by September 15?NO75¢82¢+9%2026-07-15 · Hold 7 days
0038Unemployment above 4.2% at the next print?YES37¢45¢+22%2026-07-16 · Hold 7 days
0037EU adopts the 19th sanctions package by October 1?NO49¢64¢+31%2026-07-16 · Hold 7 days
0036OPEC+ announces an output hike at the September meeting?YES69¢55¢−20%2026-07-16 · Hold 7 days
0035An L2 flips Arbitrum in TVL by October 15?NO77¢59¢−23%2026-07-17 · Hold 7 days
0034TSLA stock token closes above $380 by August 15?NO79¢74¢−6%2026-07-16 · Hold 7 days
0033A $10B AI training run announced by October 1?YES54¢100¢+85%2026-07-12 · resolved early
0032A Category 3 hurricane makes US landfall by September 30?YES62¢43¢−31%2026-07-14 · Hold 7 days
0031Stablecoin supply crosses $350B by December 31?NO21¢8¢−62%2026-07-13 · Hold 7 days
0030WTI crude settles above $75 by September 15?YES72¢59¢−18%2026-07-16 · Hold 7 days
0029S&P 500 closes above 7,200 by August 8?YES63¢100¢+59%2026-07-11 · resolved early
0028U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by September 15?NO73¢85¢+16%2026-07-15 · Hold 7 days
0027EU adopts the 20th sanctions package by August 15?YES74¢94¢+27%2026-07-14 · Hold 7 days
0026Stablecoin supply crosses $320B by August 15?YES12¢21¢+75%2026-07-13 · Hold 7 days
0025Fed cuts rates at the December meeting?YES36¢26¢−28%2026-07-15 · Hold 7 days
0024NVDA stock token closes above $210 by August 15?YES45¢38¢−16%2026-07-14 · Hold 7 days
0023US CPI prints below 3.0% for the next release?NO80¢92¢+15%2026-07-12 · Hold 7 days
0022TSLA stock token closes above $380 by year-end?YES49¢30¢−39%2026-07-12 · Hold 7 days
0021An L2 flips Arbitrum in TVL by September 30?NO74¢89¢+20%2026-07-13 · Hold 7 days
0020GPT-6 released by July 31?YES13¢29¢+123%2026-07-13 · Hold 7 days
0019US-Iran framework agreement signed by October 15?NO76¢100¢+32%2026-07-08 · resolved early
0018ETH trades above $5,500 by July 31?NO20¢43¢+115%2026-07-11 · Hold 7 days
0017An L2 flips Arbitrum in TVL by July 31?NO37¢30¢−19%2026-07-13 · Hold 7 days
0016US CPI prints below 3.0% for the next release?YES62¢72¢+16%2026-07-12 · Hold 7 days
0015GPT-6 released by September 15?YES36¢51¢+42%2026-07-11 · Hold 7 days
0014Phoenix runs 15+ straight days above 110°F by August 1?YES60¢65¢+8%2026-07-12 · Hold 7 days
0013Ukraine ceasefire in effect by July 31?YES41¢45¢+10%2026-07-10 · Hold 7 days
0012Phoenix runs 10+ straight days above 110°F by September 1?NO46¢52¢+13%2026-07-11 · Hold 7 days
0011US natural gas above $3.50 by year-end?YES58¢69¢+19%2026-07-10 · Hold 7 days
0010HOOD stock token closes above $140 by August 1?YES22¢38¢+73%2026-07-11 · Hold 7 days
0009Fed cuts rates at the December meeting?NO80¢95¢+19%2026-07-09 · Hold 7 days
0008US CPI prints below 2.8% for the next release?YES15¢22¢+47%2026-07-11 · Hold 7 days
0007Brent trades below $75 by October 15?YES40¢47¢+18%2026-07-11 · Hold 7 days
0006NYC records a 100°F day by August 15?NO18¢28¢+56%2026-07-10 · Hold 7 days
0005AAPL stock token closes above $260 by August 31?YES18¢26¢+44%2026-07-10 · Hold 7 days
0004US-Iran framework agreement signed by September 15?NO29¢14¢−52%2026-07-10 · Hold 7 days
0003NYC records a 100°F day by August 15?NO29¢24¢−17%2026-07-08 · Hold 7 days
0002A Category 4 hurricane makes US landfall by December 31?YES61¢100¢+64%2026-07-04 · resolved early
0001S&P 500 closes above 6,800 by August 31?NO85¢97¢+14%2026-07-09 · Hold 7 days
These results are simulated or hypothetical performance results with certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, they do not represent actual trading; they exclude fees, liquidity, slippage, and fills, and are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these. See the methodology.